Investments in projects that reduce our usage of Earth’s natural resources and help address climate change - are commonplace. Increasingly, these projects also entail investing in new technologies. Thus, the private sector investing is crucial for alleviation of the pollution crisis. It is in this context that Andrew McAfee’s new book “More From Less” is of the utmost relevance!
Global warming and the deteriorating global climate – largely attributed to greenhouse gases emissions – have arguably become one of the most contentious policy issues in the world today. Good reasons to be concerned abound. Wildfires, for example, caused largely by extensive periods of draught, have become a severe threat. Wildfire emergencies in Australia, California and Brazil, are some of the worst natural catastrophes in history – with loss of human and animal life, and destruction of dwellings and forests. Many disastrous effects of climate change persist: dramatic increase in the numbers and strength of tornados (US, Caribbean, the Philippines, etc.); floods; and melting ice in the Arctic, just to name a few.
None of the four global climate conventions organized by the United Nations have led to any tangible progress so far. The world’s number one economy, the United States, has in fact withdrawn from the Paris Agreement on climate, signaling to the world that its support of initiatives to contain greenhouse gases is not as strong as others would like to believe. Many leading politicians are have expressed little commitment to taking action on climate change Chief among them is, of course, the US President, Donald Trump. But the Australian Prime Minister and the President of Brazil are also in denial when it comes to climate problems.
At the core of this skepticism and inaction is the notion that containment of emissions to limit climate change is very costly. In developed countries, the coal and oil industries are represented by the powerful lobby against restricting CO2-generating fossil-fuel burning. Shipping companies, automotive firms, airlines, and other heavy CO2-emiters work consistently to block the adoption of pollution restrictive policies. At the same time, developing economies see such control measures as an unacceptably heavy burden on their economic development.
Despite the resistance, the opposite trend is gaining momentum. The world has witnessed the rise of the “green” movement, most notably in Europe (e.g. Germany, Scandinavia, and others). Modern youth seems to take leadership of the movement. The 15-year-old Swede Greta Thunberg is the most famous of them, but one must not ignore many other, perhaps less prominent figures, who nevertheless are as vocal as her. The main theme of the 2020 World Economic Forum in Davos centered around coping with climate change. But President Trump, perhaps, has a point when he states that the “green” side comes off as “doomsdayers” and “too pessimistic”. Yet, an important wave of optimism does exist, which is encouraging. Most recent research and books by authors like Steven Pinker (“Enlightenment Now”) and Hans Rosling (“Factfullness”) leave us with an optimistic outlook. And now, Andrew McAfee, a faculty member at MIT Sloan School of Management, published a new book, dedicated to the issue of climate change, with an optimistic twist. Things are getting better. We are using less resources!
Right from the book’s introduction, McAfee makes the claim that we use fewer natural resources than before, while production is increasing: we are better able to satisfy the needs of an increasing world population and increase their standards of living. This increased productivity is largely attributable to new technological advances, especially digital ones, the increased role of private capitalism, stronger public awareness and responsible governments.
The author disagrees with Malthus pessimistic outlook of stagnation and crisis. McAfee instead underlines how several technological advances within an array of different areas have shown that Malthus’ predictions were incorrect. Although McAfee argues that we have come a long way, he also details transgressions made during the industrial era. Most notable in the author’s view were the common practice of child labor, the senseless exploitation of natural resources, especially through wasteful mining, unacceptable forestry practices and the brutal killing of many animal specimens, including whales.
This perspective finds an echo in the advent of the Earth Day, first held in 1970. The ‘green’ movement has steadily grown stronger, and is still acknowledging that even today, pollution remains excessive, air quality is deteriorating, global warming is increasing, sources of possible fuel are running out, and so on – a gloomy picture. The CRIB approach (Consume less, Recycle, Impose limits, Back to the earth) to curtail this deteriorating situation just does not work according to McAfee. But the author acknowledges that the CRIB’s various sub-components may indeed have value. He also documents significant reversals in mindsets regarding the use of various natural resources, such as metals, agriculture, and wood products. At the very least, energy consumption and CO2 emission is indeed flattening out.
McAfee further examines the main causes for the encouraging trends he has documented. He identifies four key factors which he labels “the Four Horsemen”. These factors fall in two groups: the combined effect from new technologies and capitalism, i.e. productivity gains from private firms investing in new technologies, as well as, an increase in public awareness combined with policies from more responsive governments.
Capitalism may have a negative connotation to it especially when contrasted with the environment; however, the author argues that capitalism does not have to be selfish, amoral, oppressive, nor foster inequality. On the contrary, McAfee points out, socialism as we see it in Venezuela, and used to see in the former Soviet Union and in China, does not yield enough capital to be invested in new resource-saving technologies. So, investments from the private sector are part of the solution and not the problem
McAfee observes that having all “Four Horsemen” present at the same time is a good basis for positive evolution. As Pinker and Rosling had already noted, many things are improving globally. But the excessive emission of climate-changing gases is not. Why is that? The author argues that it is mainly because it is expensive. Reducing excessive emission may decrease economic wealth as well as induce an economic slow-down, which is of particular concern for the developing nations.
In order to make this difficult tradeoff – the costs associated with restricting emissions in the short term in order to reduce emissions and gain in the long term - the author calls for the mobilization of public opinion. This is difficult. Concentration of wealth is on the rise. There is more disconnection and less social capital. So, to build a broad coalition to handle the emission tradeoff problem is not easy.! Nevertheless, according to the author, things are getting better. Specifically, as noted, the CO2 emission challenge appears to have a solution Optimism is called for!
What can we do as individual citizen to make our planet better? The author calls for seven actions, all of which can be positively influenced by a broad shift in our attitudes:
Reduce pollution
Reduce greenhouse gases
Promote nuclear energy
Preserve species and habitats
Promote genetically modified organisms (GMO’s)
Fund basic research
Promote markets, competition and work
It is interesting to observe that some of these factors, such as promoting nuclear energy or embracing GMO’s, are not typically endorsed by environmentalists, or “greens”. There is probably still a long way to go before a more broadly-based coalition of progressive opinion-makers, with more consistent views, can be established.
As Jeff Bezos said in 2018, our earth is by far the best of all planets in the solar system. We have the ability to impact our planet positively. It is up to us to ensure there are ever more reasons for such optimism!
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