This book deals with the major effects that we can expect from climate change and global warming. It was written by the departing editor of New York Magazine and is an elaboration of a July 2017 cover story that became an immediate success. Although the author does not address the key effects of climate change in the capacity of an expert scientist as such, his well-informed thinking and writing seem to make good sense regarding how we should think about the planetary threats from climate change and environmental degradation.
The author’s main conclusion is that the global warming expected to occur in the coming years will almost certainly lead to major dysfunctionality regarding where on our planet humans will be able to live, effects on our food supply related to droughts and natural disasters, rising water levels’ dire consequences for low-lying lands, more violent climate events (such as storms, hurricanes, and heavy rains), and so on. Even a relatively small increase of, say, 3 °C in the mean global temperature can cause devastation. An average temperature increase of 5 to 8 °C would be disastrous. (Editors’ note: The Paris Climate Accord aims to limit this increase to 1.5 °C, but many scientists do not believe that we are currently on track to meet this target.)
The core of the book consists of 12 chapters that outline expected climate change-induced chaos and how these elements are interrelated. These factors include:
Heat death: Even a relatively small increase in average temperature will place conditions for human beings to live in jeopardy. A massive pressure regarding immigration toward more northern areas from Africa, the Middle East and Latin America can already be observed, and the author asserts that this may only be the beginning.
Hunger: Food production in newly dry areas is expected to be reduced dramatically. Farmland, already scarce in the northern hemisphere, will come under even higher pressure. A global food crisis will become permanent.
Drowning: Lower parts of the Arctic and Antarctic ice caps are going to melt, having devastating effects on what will become the new norm for sea levels. Much low-lying land and numerous large cities will simply flood and need to be evacuated. The author estimates that water levels may rise by as much as five meters.
Wildfires: We already see dramatic increases in wildfires, and more can be expected. Major damages are anticipated, primarily to dwellings.
Natural disasters: We are already seeing increases in tornados, hurricanes and heavy rainstorms. We can expect much more, including hailstorms in which the diameter of hailstones may grow dramatically to the size of a golf ball.
Freshwater strain: The pressure on the earth’s freshwater resources is likely to increase dramatically. Extreme shortages of clean drinking water in particular are expected.
Dying oceans: Global warming will heat our oceans, causing harmful to marine life. Fish species will migrate further north or south, and there will be fewer of them. In addition, plastic pollution will increasingly affect our fishing resources. The result: fewer edible fish!
Unbreathable air: We already see the effects of poor air quality, especially in China and India. The old coal-dust-driven “London Fog” is being replaced by a more complex set of pollutants. Although this aspect is perhaps not a key consequence of climate change, it is nevertheless an integral part of the challenge.
Plagues related to warming: New diseases are likely to flourish, and we see some of them already. Humanity must brace itself for major new epidemic outbreaks; the Ebola virus may be only the beginning!
Economic collapse: With the nine dysfunctional developments from global warming discussed so far, it is no wonder that the economic consequences are likely to become severe, not only for countries that will be most affected by these factors (such as in sub-Saharan Africa) but also for countries receiving the increased streams of refugees from the most affected areas.
Climate conflict: Clearly, these pressures on large emigrational settlements are likely to cause conflicts. It is important to note that the major cause for such conflict will be the shift in climate rather than factors related to the political regimes of such countries (Syria, Somalia, North African countries, etc.).
Systems: This dimension primarily has to do with the tendency of the younger generation in North America and Europe to have fewer children who are likely to grow up in our increasingly hostile world. This dampening effect on fertility rates in parts of the world relatively less affected by the consequences of climate change is likely to lead to gradual population and demographic changes accentuated by the immigration pressures previously discussed.
The last sections of the book are more contentious. The author’s arguments remain compelling, but they appear to be less backed by scientific evidence. More generally, the author does not seem to present clear recommendations regarding how to cope with the aforementioned climate-driven challenges. We are left with a “call to action” to cope with the climatic challenges that the author has analyzed for us so succinctly. Only our will to cope with the climate challenge will be effective, in the end.
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