Hans Rosling’s book Factfulness provides insights on how to handle ten common misconceptions that are pervasive in Western countries. Rosling also makes the case that conditions in the world tend to be better than people think, which is good to keep in mind, especially considering how inundated people are with negative news, whether from politicians or from various institutions.
First, here are a few words about the author. Rosling is a Swedish medical doctor and the professor emeritus of international health at the Karolinska Institute, the world-renowned medical hospital and school in Stockholm. He has also worked as an advisor to the WHO and UNICEF. He is an in-demand speaker and has even developed several well-known TV series. He has spent the bulk of his medical career in Sweden and in several African countries.
The following are the ten misguided mental tendencies, or instincts, that the author identified, along with his suggestions for how we may cope with them:
The Gap Instinct. Recognize that the media has a tendency to juxtapose two extremes because that makes for interesting reading or viewing; remember to consider the majority opinion for these issues. Beware of comparisons that involve often-marginal extremes.
The Negativity Instinct. Expect bad news to be reported, and understand that good news such as gradual improvements is not considered sensational enough to be reported. An increase in news about suffering is not necessarily equal to an increase in suffering. Beware of glorified tweets as well; continuous boasting is not the same as continuous progress.
The Straight-Line Instinct. A trend seldom continues in a straight line. Expect cyclicality, ups and downs, even shocks and revolutions. Lines often bend eventually!
The Fear Instinct. The world seems scarier than it is. Rosling defines risk as being equal to danger times exposure. People often overestimate the chance that negative events (for instance, an act of terrorism) will occur where they live. Thus, Rosling invokes the old dictum of calming oneself before carrying on. In other words, always calculate the actual risks.
The Size Instinct. Figures are often misleading when interpreted in isolation. Thus, always look for comparisons. Focus on the per capita values when comparing figures across countries or regions. Put data in proportion!
The Generalization Instinct. Question which categories should be used, and look for differences within groups and similarities across them. Beware of terms such as “the majority” (this could mean 51%, which is very different from 99%), as well as colorful examples (which might be exceptions rather than the rule).
The Destiny Instinct. Slow change is still change! Keep track of gradual improvements, and always update your knowledge. Keep in mind that values have changed, and challenge the idea that today’s culture is the same as yesterday’s – or that tomorrow’s will be the same as today’s.
The Single-Perspective Instinct. Test your ideas and recognize your limitations. Remember that no analytical approach is the best in every instance. Use both quantitative and qualitative analysis. Simple ideas and simple solutions should be viewed with suspicion. The entire toolbox of solutions should be used.
The Blame Instinct. Resist finding a scapegoat; look for the actual causes instead. In other words, look for systems rather than heroes. Resist pointing your finger and instead, try to improve yourself!
The Urgency Instinct. Control your urgency by taking small steps and taking breaks. Back rapid judgements with data, and be skeptical of fortune-tellers and soothsayers. Try to avoid drastic actions!
In the final chapter of this book, Rosling analyzes factfulness in practice with regard to
Education. People should teach children about this book’s ten principles.
Business. More than just avoiding Western stereotyping, the business community can learn from these ten misconceptions in order to provide clearer leadership.
Activists and Politicians. Because these groups will always compete to present the most interesting narratives, they will typically be biased. Thus, citizens must become more fact-driven and pursue more realistic analyses.
Leaders. Leaders must strive to promote balance so that the public is afraid of the right events and does not promote fear of improbable events; in other words, people need wise leadership!
This book is highly welcome, especially as populism is on the rise. Properly balanced fact-based analysis is more important today than ever before, as overly simplistic conclusions must be avoided. It is worthwhile to pay attention to Bill Gates’ recommendation on this book’s dust jacket: “One of the most important books I’ve ever read – an indispensable guide to thinking clearly about the world.”
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