Steven Pinker is Professor of Psychology at Harvard University and one of the world’s most influential thinkers in the field of evolutionary and experimental psychology. In his latest book, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism and Progress, he addresses the ambitious question of where the world is heading and presents a fundamentally positive view of how society is evolving. Pinker’s tone is quite similar to that of Hans Rosling’s, who stated, “I am not an optimist. I’m a very curious possibilist” (Rosling, page 345).
Pinker makes a more fundamental argument for his positive view of the world’s development, namely in that enlightenment is prevailing. Enlightenment, as he understands it, is a way of seeing the world - a Weltanschauung - where reason prevails. The Age of Enlightenment sprang out of the 18th Century, and was an era marked by "humankind's emergence from its self-incurred immaturity". The period's motto was "Dare to understand!", and thus challenged dogma and preconceived ideas. Four broad themes tied the movement together: reason, science, humanism and progress (p.9). The way of achieving enlightenment was through literacy, education, questioning and the open exchange of ideas. In the largest part of his book, Pinker shows how enlightenment is still actively at work and permeates our modern world. The author describes large sets of positive trends (e.g., we are living longer, healthier and happier lives). He concludes his book with a defense of enlightenment, showing how reason, science and liberal ideas advance progress (e.g., economic progress, health, well-being, safety and peace) and that the three work in a virtuous cycle.
Pinker is realistic about the possible forces of counter-enlightenment: populism, aggressive nationalism, militarism, authoritarianism, contemptuousness and various kinds of nostalgia. However, in the bulk of the book, the author details fifteen highly relevant phenomena (e.g., health, wealth, peace, safety, democracy, and education), demonstrating with empirical evidence that the state of the world is moving forward in a positive way. Take a look at these stunning graphs:
Despite what we read about unhealthy foods and lifestyles, global life expectancy is increasing:
Sources: Our World in Data, Roser 2016n, based on data from Riley 2005 for the years before 2000 and from the World Health Organization and the World Bank for the subsequent years. Updated with data provided by Max Roser.
Despite economic inequalities, GDP per capita is rising and poverty is in serious decline:
Source: Our World in Data, Roser 2016c, based on data from the World Bank and from Maddison Project 2014.
Sources: Our World in Data, Roser & Ortiz-Ospina 2017, based on data from Bourguignon & Morrison 2002 (1820 - 1992) and the World Bank 2016g (1981 - 2015).
Although horrible accidents and catastrophes happen, the world is becoming safer:
Sources: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, accessed from http://www.informedforlife.org/demos/FCKeditor/UserFiles/File/TRAFFICFATALITIES(1899-2005).pdf, http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx, and https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812384.
Source: Aviation Safety Network 2017. Data on the number of passengers are from World Bank 2016b.
Despite despicable terrorist attacks, terror is no more prevalent today than before. In many countries, it is virtually non-existent:
Sources: "Global Terrorism Database", National Consortsium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 2016, https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd. The rate for the world excludes deaths in Afghanistan after 2001, Iraq after 2003, Pakistan after 2004, Nigeria after 2009, Syria after 2011, and Libya after 2014. Population estimates for the world and Western Europe are from the European Union`s 2015 Revision of World Population Prospects (https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/); estimates for the United States are from US Census Bureau 2017. The vertical arrow points to 2007, the last year plotted in figs. 6-9, 6-10, and 6-11 in Pinker 2011.
Despite what we read about populism, disenfranchisement and discontent, global well-being, quality of life and happiness are on the rise:
Sources: Historical Index of Human Development: Prados de la Escosura 2015, 0-1 scale, available at Our World in Data, Roser 2016h. Well-Being Composite: Rijpma 2014, p. 259, standard deviation scale over country-decades.
Source: Stevenson & Wolfers 2008a, fig. 11, based on data from the Gallup World Poll 2006. Credit: Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers.
Finally, even in the face of the USA's political divisions, it seems feelings of happiness and excitement are largely stable:
Source: "General Social Survey", Smith, Son, & Schapiro 2015, figs. 1 and 5, updated for 2016 from https://gssdataexplorer.norc.org/projects/15157/variables/438/vshow. Data exclude nonresponses.
Together, these findings provide powerful evidence that enlightenment is working. Key scientific findings have also confirmed this development: investors and entrepreneurs are pursuing emerging opportunities thanks to new discoveries, new legislation is strengthening progress, and activists are lending support to the strong positive changes (although, as Pinker states, intellectual activists might often tend to dispute positive realities, often beyond reason).
As business leaders, investors and concerned citizens, it is worthwhile noting that leading intellectual personalities such as Pinker present convincing rebuttals to the commonly presented bleak assessment of the world. The world is developing in a fundamentally positive way, despite the gyrations, corrections and occasional crashes of the markets and the increasingly negative tone of much news reporting. Pinker, of course, realises that we still face formidable challenges, above all when it comes to taking action to reduce CO2 emissions and preventing detrimental climate change.
On a personal note, I remain worried about the spread of nationalism and populism in many parts of the Western world. These tendencies can be taken as a sign that too many people do not sense a real chance to partake in the economic and social opportunities that progress has afforded. How can we as concerned citizens deal with such a situation? I have three suggestions: a) Remain grounded and engaged. If we treat others with respect and are engaged citizens, then our chances for continued progress increase. b) Continue to promote (data) literacy worldwide. Strive to create jobs and try to assist young people access entrepreneurial opportunities. c) Stay positive, counter the arguments of the naysayers and make decisions based on facts. Let us not get carried away by negative rhetoric in the press and in politics. The situation is not as bleak as perhaps our emotions are trying to tell us, which is why Pinker’s fact-based and grounded outlook becomes so valuable.
In his conclusion (part three), Pinker provides a strong defence for enlightenment-enabled progress. His summary champions the cause of reason, while remaining aware of the fact that irrationalism still thrives in some areas, such as conspiracy theory beliefs. However, a belief in fundamental logic and reason shall still prevail, along with science and the power of irrefutable scientific discoveries leading to further economic progress. In the end, enlightenment and continued progress are fundamentally linked.
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