This book discusses geopolitical challenges in 10 different parts of the world. Although published in 2016, Tim Marshall´s perspectives and analysis seem as relevant today as when they were first written. Importantly, Marshall observes that the land on which we live always shapes us, and that the shape of that land actually imprisons the leaders of a given country.
Leaders are, of course, always seeking high ground, to better protect their countries. This geographical factor, along with other similar factors, is easily overlooked. Marshall´s book describes several of these key geographic dimensions, including navigable rivers, mountains, deserts, lakes and seas, coastal harbors, and jungles; all equally important. Indeed, what would the US be without its fertile mid-West breadbasket? What would Netherlands be without Rotterdam? What would Germany be without the Rhine or China without the Yangtze? And what would the Middle East be with out its deposits of oil divided between mountain ranges and vast areas of inhabitable dessert?
Geopolitics considers the political factors that shape international affairs, but also acknowledges the relevance of such elements as climate, demographics, and competition for natural resources. The leaders and politics of various national regimes will, of course, always be critical in driving geopolitics; while technological advances also clearly impact the world order (just consider the impact of mobile phones and the internet!). However, geography, along with the history of how people have overcome natural limitations to establish societies, remains crucial to understanding the world now and in the future. Indeed, as this book strongly demonstrates, a realistic understanding of global politics requires a corresponding familiarity with the key geographical realities and constraints that characterize the various parts of the world.
Marshall discusses these factors in what he considers the ten broad areas of our world. However, before delving more deeply into these issues, I would like to provide a brief profile of Tim Marshall, a leading authority on foreign affairs whose 25 years of experience includes editorial work at the BBC, Sky News, and other media outlets. He has covered most of the world’s troubled areas, writing for The Times, Sunday Times, Guardian, Independent and Daily Telegraph. A British citizen, Marshall is the author of nine previous books.
The following is a brief review of the ten key geographic dimensions (i.e., the key characteristics of the ten relevant areas) that the book covers. These ten areas are the ones that Marshall regards as most important, and each face specific challenges:
Russia: No ice-free ports; flat Northern-European plain (hard to defend)
China: Natural boundaries to the North – Siberia (vast area, small population); to the West – Mongolia, desert; to the South – Himalayan mountains; and to the East – Yellow Sea. No direct access or ports to Pacific Ocean or Indian Ocean. Navigable and interconnected rivers, like the Yellow River and Yangtze River.
United States of America: Protected borders consisting of Atlantic Ocean, Pacific Ocean, Canada (friendly) and Mexico (non-hostile). No potentially threatening powers nearby. Big/long navigable rivers, including the Mississippi River. Many natural ports.
Western Europe: Big navigable rivers (Rhine, Danube). Fertile soil and good climate. Good ports, but some mountain ridge barriers. The United Kingdom as islands – easy to protect.
Africa: Lack of navigable rivers. Few good ports. Fragmented by deserts (Sahara and Angolan), jungle (Central Africa), mountains (East African Ridge). Climate differentials (tropical in center versus Mediterranean climate in North and South). Rivers only navigable to limited extent.
The Middle East: Fragmented by climate and geography (deserts, mountain ridges); Non-navigable rivers.
India and Pakistan: Border protection to the North – Himalayas; to the North-West – Afghanistan; to the East – Bangladesh; and to the South – Indian Ocean. Huge climate differentials. No navigable rivers.
Korea and Japan: Japan as an island – easy to defend. Both countries lack critical resources (energy, metals, minerals).
Latin America: Dividing factors such as Andes Range complicate communication between East and West. Jungles on vast inland planes, with coastal settlements prevailing. Climate differentials, by region (hot North versus temperate South).
The Arctic: Russia by far the largest geographical stakeholder. Climate change rendering region more accessible (Northeast passage becoming more navigable).
Mr. Marshall guides us through historical accounts of each of these regions as well; he cites their development and analyzes current tensions and conflicts. Moreover, he notes that geography, of course, does not dictate the course of all events; that being said, much of his analysis and discussion tends to hinge on the geographical factors described above.
In conclusion, the author points to three new geographical factors that have the potential to shape the geopolitical future:
Climate change: Impacts on agriculture, meteorology (storms, high temperature resulting in droughts, etc.). In particular, melting of ice will lead to both flooding and to new navigational routes.
Water wars in semi-arid areas: Impacts on neighboring countries resulting from new dams. Further influence reflected in irrigation projects and water scarcity.
Outer Space: A space race between the US, China, Russia and private players is likely to persist here.
In sum, Prisoners of Geography is a thought-provoking book that I highly recommend. Marshall puts the “geo-” back into geopolitics.
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