Software entrepreneur, Tim O´Reilly, and entrepreneurial academician, K. F. Lee, have written thought-provoking books on artificial intelligence (AI) and the impact it will have on the world. The authors, both successful businessmen, present juxtaposing views. O’Reilly is the tech believer and the optimist of the two, whereas Lee is more guarded in his views but a cautious optimist in the end. Both authors agree that AI will have wide-reaching consequences for society and that business leaders should start preparing their businesses sooner rather than later.
Tim O’Reilly is the founder and controlling owner of O’Reilly Media. This company initially specialized in software manuals before evolving into the successful publishing business we know today. O’Reilly has also created several venture firms, including O’Reilly Alpha Tech Ventures. He has developed an impeccable reputation over the last few decades of being a leading voice in Silicon Valley.
In his 2017 book, What’s the Future, he discusses how technological developments (especially within AI) are likely to have fundamental impacts. The book is not an easy read. It is full of hypotheses, postulations and predictions that do not make it easy for the reader to follow. This complexity is accentuated by a lot of namedropping from leading IT companies and persons. However, all things considered, the author does pull it off.
O’Reilly makes a strong argument for making scenario maps of various business situations. In some cases, algorithms might be useful to obtain the needed data and to cast light on each scenario. Clearly, more relevant data will result in more accurate maps! Thus, O’Reilly professes a strong belief in how relevant business axioms must be continuously tested by data and points out that technological breakthroughs often occur this way. In his view, technological development need not represent threats to employment. His view is that innovation ultimately creates employment opportunities and new areas of commercial value. Workforces should thus be retained accordingly so as to be capable of working in these emerging cutting-edge areas. O’Reilly calls for education that delivers relevant lifelong learning. He also calls for changes in labor laws and government control to normalize temporary work on serious projects. "De-skilling" of competences that are no longer useful, and "up-skilling" in new areas that are needed!
O’Reilly is thus an optimist, in the sense that testing of relevant axioms and scenarios coupled with ample data - set in AI contexts - will yield better futures for most of us. However, there are definite societal challenges that must be addressed: a modified educational system as well as revised labor laws to legitimize independent project workers, above all. O’Reilly is a devoted believer in the promises of the future, and his book is dedicated accordingly: “For all who work to make tomorrow better than today.”
Takeaways: K. F. Lee's AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley and the New World Order
K. F. Lee was born in China, was trained at Carnegie-Mellon University in computer science and has held leading scientific positions in the US and in China in companies such as Microsoft, SGI and Apple. He was also president of Google China before joining the technology start-up Sinovation as its chairman/CEO and as a major investor.
Contrary to other leading experts, such as Tim O’Reilly, Lee provides a more guarded view of AI and the effects it will have. Lee warns that AI will, in all likelihood, lead to massive job losses, the upheaval of well-established work-related norms and values, potentially massive redistribution of wealth and even an increased likelihood of societal instability and conflicts among nations. The author provides a detailed analysis of what seems to drive AI's development in the US versus China. He also points out that China seems to be catching up to the US in this space.
Much of American AI development takes place in the Silicon Valley’s creative atmosphere with little thought regarding tailoring products for the Chinese market, as well as some disdain for what is broadly considered a copycat-driven strategy in Chinese AI. However, Lee argues that Chinese AI is driven by much more than infringement on the intellectual property of US firms. The key, in his view, is intense competition, primarily among various Chinese corporations, where entrepreneurship and rapid adaptation of product offerings are central. He further argues that it is not the Chinese government’s protectionism that allows China to catch up with the US in the AI space but the entrepreneurial intensity fostered by internal competition. Lee also argues that gathering reliable data will be imperative and ultimately closely linked to “winning” the AI race. Here he sees the US maintaining its lead.
Lee does not see equality regarding the development of jobs in all professions. Introducing a 2x2 matrix (social versus asocial and creativity/strategy-based versus organization-based), he identifies job categories that might remain relatively safe in the age of AI. These are the roles with high “social scores,” as well as high “creativity/strategy-based” scores, such as CEO (cognition labor) or beauty stylist (personal labor). In contrast, optimization-based and asocial jobs are in the danger zone. Unfortunately, Lee does not discuss how, for instance, good CEOs might further develop their relevant experience-based skillsets in the AI age. Clearly, most organizations will become smaller, relying heavily on outsourcing and become more network-based.
Advanced AI, often denoted real AI or RAI, is the topic of an entire chapter. RAI would allow software systems, machines and robots to self-learn and, over time, perform better than humans, even in unstructured tasks that are usually deemed a human domain. Lee posits that RAI would even end up replacing human CEOs! However, Lee does not see this in a pessimistic light. He presents this development as a matter of fact and points out that there will always remain some unstructured tasks that humans will perform best. However, he also points out that continued relevant education and retraining will become more and more key.
In the book’s last chapters, Lee presents a vision for the future. He calls for greater cooperation between China and the US, rather than taking the view that AI development must be a race with a winner and a loser. In this regard, he stresses the need to learn from other cultures: Korean culture regarding the value of education; Switzerland or Japan in emphasizing quality and pride in craftsmanship; the US in seeking out new possibilities; the Netherlands or Canada for strong social responsibility; and even China regarding a strong commitment to caring for the elderly. Ultimately, Lee emphasizes that one might draw on the best from a multitude of national cultures to come up with a new social order that can better deal with the disruptions that AI will bring. He further discusses and recommends measures such as guaranteed wages for all (so-called universal basic income (UBI) or guaranteed minimum income (GMI)), a 4-day working week and/or job sharing among several persons. This seems to be consistent with his belief that broader social welfare can be achieved while maintaining the logic of private enterprise. So, although Lee expertly argues that AI capabilities are likely to increase exponentially, more or less driven by different developmental forces prevalent in China and Silicon Valley, he also points out severely disruptive effects to the way we currently do things, especially regarding employment. However, he is optimistic that a revised, harmonious world order can be established. Thus, in conclusion, Lee disagrees with other leading experts, such as Tim O’Reilly, regarding AI’s likely effects on social cohesion. Yet, in the end, they seem equally optimistic that a new world order is likely to be established. Only time will tell how things actually play out!
Commenti